Sales of notebook computers during the back-to-school rush this year beat expectations, new data from market research firm NPD Group found. While sales of Windows laptops continued to slide compared to last year, the decline was significantly less severe than in the first half of the year according to NPD. Windows notebook sales between July and August dipped 4% compared to the same period in 2010, while sales in the first half of 2011 were down 12% year-over-year. ”The sequential results from NPD’s back-to-school point-of-sale (POS) data indicates that after a shortfall early in the year that was mostly related to the difficult comparisons to the binge of buying after the release of Windows 7, the Windows notebook market remains solid,” said NPD vice president of industry analysis Stephen Baker in a statement. “The last two weeks of August are the most important period for back to school buying, and those weeks saw more than an 8 percent increase over last year in retail sales.” NPD’s full press release follows below.

Back-to-School Notebook Sales Exceed Expectations: Windows Notebook Sales Increase in August

Strong sales over the last two weeks of August 2011 ensure that back-to-school sales show positive trends when compared to the first half of the year.

PORT WASHINGTON, N.Y., September 14, 2011 – According to The NPD Group, a leading market research company, back-to-school sales turned out much better than the first half of 2011, when retail notebook sales in the U.S. declined more than 12 percent over the prior year. During the two-month back-to-school period (July through August), Windows notebook computer sales declined 4 percent over the prior year, while August 2011 sales, propelled by a late surge in volume, posted an increase of nearly 4 percent.

“The sequential results from NPD’s back-to-school point-of-sale (POS) data indicates that after a shortfall early in the year that was mostly related to the difficult comparisons to the binge of buying after the release of Windows 7, the Windows notebook market remains solid,” said Stephen Baker, vice president of industry analysis for NPD. “The last two weeks of August are the most important period for back to school buying, and those weeks saw more than an 8 percent increase over last year in retail sales.”

A prime driver of the sales volume increase was a drop in average selling prices. During July and August 2011, ASPs for Windows notebooks were $477, which is a 7 percent decline from the same period last year. The drop in ASPs resulted in a record 65 percent of all notebook sales occurring in products sold for less than $500. Sales in this crucial segment grew 12 percent versus last year, while sales results for windows notebooks above $500 fell 23 percent.

“A strong promotional environment led consumers into the stores over the last part of the back to school season,” Baker said. “The positive consumer response to aggressive notebook pricing, despite the continued demand for tablet computers, likely points towards a highly promotional holiday season ahead.”

Apple was the world’s top PC vendor last quarter, having shipped 13.6 million “personal computers” according to market research firm DisplaySearch. The firm includes both Mac computers and iPad tablets in its figures however, whereas most similar reports do not include tablet computers powered by mobile operating systems in the general PC category. Including the iPad, DisplaySearch says that Apple shipped nearly 4 million more PCs than second-ranked HP, which shipped 9.7 million computers in the second quarter. Dell found itself in the No. 3 spot with 7.5 million units shipped, Acer was No. 4 with 7 million units and Lenovo rounded out the top-5 with 4.8 million PCs shipped. Overall, the firm found that PC market growth continued to slow in the second quarter. “Preliminary results show a second consecutive quarter of Y/Y shipment growth rate decline,” said Richard Shim, Senior Analyst for DisplaySearch, in a statement. “While part of the Y/Y decline can be attributed to a strong first half of 2010, the rising tablet PC shipment growth rate begins to point to notebook PC shipment cannibalization.” DisplaySearch’s full press release follows below.

Apple Retakes Top Mobile PC Market Share Position from HP in Q2’11

Tablet PC Shipments Fuel Apple’s 136% Y/Y Mobile PC Growth; Lead on HP Nearly 4 Million Units

SANTA CLARA, CALIF., August 18, 2011—Apple shipped over 13.5 million mobile PCs in Q2’11 for 136% Y/Y shipment growth, overtaking HP for the top spot, according to preliminary results from the latest DisplaySearch Quarterly Mobile PC Shipment and Forecast Report. Nearly 80% of Apple’s mobile PC shipments were iPads, which reached over 10.7 million units, for 107% Y/Y growth. Apple’s total mobile PC shipments (notebook and tablet PCs) were 3.9 million units more than HP’s nearly 9.7 million units for the quarter.

From a category perspective, tablet PCs continue to be the engine of growth for the mobile PC industry. Tablet PC shipments were up nearly 70% Q/Q and over 400% Y/Y with nearly 16.4 million units shipped in Q2’11. Notebook PC shipments were down 2% Q/Q but up 2% Y/Y with nearly 48 million units shipped in Q2’11. A consumer notebook PC adoption slowdown continues to hold back the industry following a 2% Y/Y drop in shipments in Q1’11. Worldwide mobile PC shipments (including notebook and tablet PCs) reached 64.4 million in Q2’11, up 10% Q/Q and 28% Y/Y. Among the top five players, Acer experienced the largest decline in shipment growth. Acer’s shipment growth declined in Q2’11, falling 4% Q/Q and 12% Y/Y.

In the notebook PC category, Samsung and Dell had the fastest shipment growth, up 44% and 33% Y/Y, respectively. Dell was also up Q/Q with 27% shipment growth, as it continues to take advantage of a rebound in commercial market PC shipments. Samsung’s shipments fell 16% Q/Q as it was unable to build off of strong shipment results in EMEA and China. Still Samsung was able to top Q1’11 shipment levels in North America and Asia Pacific.

“Preliminary results show a second consecutive quarter of Y/Y shipment growth rate decline,” saidRichard Shim, Senior Analyst for DisplaySearch. “While part of the Y/Y decline can be attributed to a strong first half of 2010, the rising tablet PC shipment growth rate begins to point to notebook PC shipment cannibalization.”

Tablet PC shipment results show that even after removing Apple from growth rate calculations, worldwide Y/Y tablet PC shipment growth reached 25%, and shipments of non-Apple tablets reached over 5.6 million units for the quarter.

Table 1: Preliminary Q2’11 Worldwide Top Five Mobile PC Shipment Rankings by Brand (millions)

Rank	Brand	Units	Share
1	Apple	13.6	21.1%
2	HP	9.7	15.0%
3	Dell	7.5	11.6%
4	Acer Group	7	10.9%
5	Lenovo	4.8	7.5%

Source: DisplaySearch Quarterly Mobile PC Shipment and Forecast Report

The DisplaySearch Quarterly Mobile PC Shipment and Forecast Report covers the entire range of mobile PC products shipped worldwide and regionally. With analysis of global and regional brands, the Quarterly Mobile PC Shipment and Forecast Report provides an objective, expert view of the market with insight into historical shipments, revenues, forecasts and more. For more information about the report, please contact Charles Camaroto at 1.888.436.7673 or 1.516.625.2452, e-mailcontact@displaysearch.com or contact your regional DisplaySearch office in China, Japan, Korea or Taiwan or more information.

Taiwan-based Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute expects roughly 360 million combined personal computers and media tablets to ship in 2011, Taiwan Economic News reports. MIC sees PC shipments growing 6.6% over 2010 to land at more than 320 million units this year, and it thinks shipments of media tablets like Apple’s iPad 2ill w exceed 48 million units in 2011, up 198% from 2010. MIC senior industry analyst Chris Wei notes that the improving global economy and replacement PC purchases in the enterprise market would be largely responsible for this year’s growth. Needham & Company analyst Charlie Wolf recently estimated that Apple would ship 30 million iPad tablets in 2011, but the company will likely far exceed that figure if tablet shipments are indeed to surpass 48 million units as MIC predicts.

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Market research firm Gartner on Wednesday said that growth of PC sales would slow to 9.3% in 2011 as consumers reduce spending and hold onto their PCs longer. Gartner had previously projected that PC sales would grow 10.5% this year. Beyond belt tightening, Gartner notes that the slowed PC growth is due in part to strong sales of Apple’s iPad line and other tablets. The issue is not that tablets are replacing personal computers, however, as Gartner says these media tablets have just caused consumers to delay new PC purchases. “Consumer mobile PCs are no longer driving growth, because of sharply declining consumer interest in mini-notebooks,” said Gartner research director Ranjit Atwal in a statement. ”Mini-notebook shipments have noticeably contracted over the last several quarters, and this has substantially reduced overall mobile PC unit growth. Media tablets, such as the iPad, have also impacted mobile growth, but more because they have caused consumers to delay new mobile PC purchases rather than directly replacing aging mobile PCs with media tablets. We believe direct substitution of media tablets for mobile PCs will be minimal.” Gartner’s full press release follows below.

Gartner Says PC Unit Growth in 2011 will Slow to 9.3 Percent as Consumers in Mature Markets Remain Cautious

Near-Term PC Growth Reliant on Professional Replacements

STAMFORD, Conn., June 8, 2011—

Throughout much of the last decade, PC unit growth was powered by consumers. With consumers from mature markets maintaining a tight rein on their spending in response to continuing economic uncertainty, and a lack of compelling reasons for consumers in general to replace their PCs, PC unit growth has slowed and must once again rely on businesses to drive it.

“Consumer mobile PCs are no longer driving growth, because of sharply declining consumer interest in mini-notebooks. Mini-notebook shipments have noticeably contracted over the last several quarters, and this has substantially reduced overall mobile PC unit growth,” said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner. “Media tablets, such as the iPad, have also impacted mobile growth, but more because they have caused consumers to delay new mobile PC purchases rather than directly replacing aging mobile PCs with media tablets. We believe direct substitution of media tablets for mobile PCs will be minimal.”

PCs are transitioning from a one-size-fits-all computing platform to a more-specialized device, prized for its ability to complement other devices. “The PC market is experiencing dramatic structural changes,” said Mr. Atwal.” Moving forward, PCs will no longer be a market by themselves, but part of a larger device market that ranges from smart televisions to the most-basic-feature phones. Within this market, consumers and professionals will increasingly use the combination of devices that best suits their particular needs.”

Over the next 18 months, PC growth will be supported by healthy professional replacements. “Businesses sharply reduced replacements and extended PC lifetimes in response to the recession,” said Raphael Vasquez, research analyst at Gartner. “Businesses have begun replacing aging PCs more vigorously. We expect the growing urgency for businesses to migrate away from Windows XP will drive significant professional replacements.”

Gartner has reduced expected 2011 Japanese PC unit growth to 2.4 percent in response to the March earthquake and tsunami. “Desk-based PC shipment growth has been significantly affected and business continuity plans are accelerating the shift to mobile PCs and alternate computing models,” said George Shiffler, research director at Gartner. “However, the impact of Japan’s twin disasters on worldwide PC shipment growth has been minor, and PC vendors have so far managed the threat of Japanese component disruptions.”

Additional analysis is available in the Gartner on Demand webinar “Gartner PC and Media Tablet Forecast Update, 2Q 2011.” The webinar is available at http://my.gartner.com/portal/server.pt?open=512&objID=202&mode=2&PageID=5553&resId=1635714&ref=Webinar-Calendar.

Shares of Acer stock were down nearly 7% on the Taiwan Stock Exchange Tuesday on news that the PC manufacturer had unexpectedly and significantly lowered it’s first-quarter sales estimates. The PC maker had previously estimated its first-quarter PC sales would grow 3% from the previous quarter. Now, Acer has adjusted its forecast, saying it expects sales to drop 10% compared to the prior quarter. Asustek, an Acer competitor, is also struggling with similar sales declines in the first quarter. Acer cites weakened demand in the U.S. and Western Europe for the drop off in sales. The emerging tablet market lead by Apple’s iPad and iPad 2 devices is also seen as largely contributing to the decline in PC sales. Acer expects its net profit margin to drop below 2% in the first quarter from 2.93% in the previous quarter, though it predicts that second-quarter PC shipments will reverse the downward trend, growing by 10% over first-quarter sales.

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Just in case the current economic climate didn’t tip you off, Gartner has issued new predictions for PC sales in 2009 and things don’t look good. You don’t say? According to the firm, the PC market is in for its sharpest decline ever in 2009 with sales expected to drop a massive 11.9 percent. Should Gartner’s prediction be accurate, the PC business is in for a decline nearly three times its current record slide of 3.2 percent in 2001. Insights from George Shiffler, research director at Gartner:

The PC industry is facing extraordinary conditions as the global economy continues to weaken, users stretch PC lifetimes and PC suppliers grow increasingly cautious.

The firm sees laptop sales rising around 9 percent year-over-year in 2009 while progress in the portable department is offset, and then some, by a steep 32 percent drop off in desktop sales. Gartner also predicts a 10.4 percent sales decline in emerging markets which saw an 11.1 percent growth in its prior worst year, 2002. Long story short, 2008 was bleak and 2009 is shaping up to be even worse.

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