China's Asteroid Defense System Is Gearing Up To Deflect Its First Target

We've known for some time that China was working on an asteroid monitoring system that the country also hoped to use as a means to redirect asteroids. NASA proved this was possible in 2022, when its D.A.R.T. spacecraft crashed into an asteroid, successfully changing the orbit of the asteroid Dimorphos. With concerns over how close massive asteroids like Apophis will come to Earth in the coming years — though scientists have confirmed Apophis won't hit Earth — as well as the sheer number of near-Earth Asteroids known to humankind, it makes sense for other countries to be ramping up their own programs to be able to do the same.

The country is currently looking at a few different approaches, according to recent reports. The most likely is to utilize kinetic impact, as NASA did with its D.A.R.T. mission. In fact, China plans to test a kinetic-based system in 2027. This basically means slamming something into the asteroid in an effort to change its course or break it up.

However, there are other options, too, with a military affairs and aerospace technology expert telling reporters that China could also use gravity tractors to tow the asteroid into a new orbit, or even use laser ablation — like that used in some surgeries — to alter the asteroid's trajectory to make it less of a threat. Mention was also made of using continuous-thrust techniques, which would allow China to actively push an asteroid. Exactly how that would work is unknown at the moment, but it is an option being looked into.

Much like NASA's 2022 D.A.R.T. mission, China plans to try changing the course of an asteroid through kinetic impact. The mission is currently reported to launch in 2027, with China looking to target the orbit of the asteroid 2016 WP8. The mission is currently described as being made up of two spacecraft, one observer and one impactor. The impactor would be expected to reach and crash into 2016 WP8 in 2029, with the observer following up with assessments on the impact as well as any changes made to the asteroid's overall orbit.

China has been working on this plan since at least 2022, with Space News reporting that the original launch window for the mission was set for sometime in 2025 to 2027, and that originally China planned to target an entirely different asteroid. However, those plans continued to evolve, with the latest plans to launch in December 2027 now being the most recent, and with 2016 WP8 becoming the target.

We'll need to wait for China to share official details about its mission as it grows closer, but it does appear to be approaching NASA's D.A.R.T. mission from a single launch versus launching the impactor and the observer separately. China also has other asteroid-based missions ongoing at the moment, including its Tianwen-2 mission, which is close to making contact with the asteroid Kamo'oalewa. With so many eyes on massive asteroids expected to make close passes of Earth, having multiple countries like China and the U.S. working on asteroid defense systems is going to be key to helping stave off any potential collisions in the coming decades.