The Old Sailor Myth Satellites Actually Confirmed Is True

Sailors have long told tales of giant waves that spring from nowhere in the ocean, threatening to destroy ships entirely. Despite what sailors claimed, rogue waves were thought to not be scientifically realistic. The size of waves was understood to be distributed in a bell-curve shape, with a few small waves, lots of medium-sized waves, and a few large waves. Now, satellite data have caught a evidence of waves at the extreme end of this bell curve, potentially reaching over 100 feet high. Analysis of these data sheds light on the mysteries of our oceans, such as the research that suggested all oceans on Earth may have once been green.

In 2024, a storm in the Pacific Ocean likely produced a rogue wave that was 115 feet high. Data regarding the wave were collected from satellites that monitor the ocean's activities. By scanning the ocean surface from space, satellites map wave heights across vast areas. This has turned rogue waves from post-event sailor stories to documented activity that can be analyzed, measured, and cataloged. This giant wave sheds light on the fact that these types of megawaves can form even without hurricane conditions, and illuminates how unpredictable sailing the ocean truly is.

A study has been done to see how observations and data from satellites can measure rogue waves, published in Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences. This is not unlike the study done into understanding giant tsunamis. The research used the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, which is a satellite system designed to map the height of Earth's water surfaces in detail. The study tracked ocean swells as they moved away from a storm, detailing their height and how it was reduced as they traveled.

Satellite data were used to analyze ocean storms during 2023 and 2024. One such storm sent waves across the Pacific Ocean, pummeling coastlines all the way from Canada to Peru, and even impacting a big-wave surfing event in Hawaii. For this storm, satellites measured the highest waves they ever recorded.

These observations have revealed new insights into the behavior of the ocean's largest waves, including rogue waves, or megawaves. Using SWOT, the research showed how dominant waves can feed into much longer, more powerful waves far from the storm center that can spring up on ships unexpectedly. The study enforced that understanding these types of waves and what creates them can help with safety for sailors, improve infrastructure for at-risk coastlines, and even compare the data to seismic activity in the area to better understand how the two mix.

That isn't the only study meant to broaden our understanding and approach to rogue waves. An 18-year-long study published in the Scientific Reports analyzed high-frequency laser measurements of ocean waves collected at the Ekofisk platform in the North Sea. It divided the data into over 27,000 half-hour snapshots of ocean activity. This approach allowed the team to account for local ocean conditions and better observe how rogue waves form. The team found out that rogue waves are created when multiple other waves combine, which is different from what other theories have proposed.

During this time period, ocean storms Borgny and Andrea were studied, particularly Andrea, which had rogue wave formation. The team found that the shape of the waves was a better predictor for rogue waves, rather than just the elements of a severe storm that typically had large high-energy waves. Many waves naturally develop sharper peaks and shallower dips, and this shape helps multiple waves combine and briefly form much larger waves. Based on this, they developed a new statistical model to estimate the chances of rogue waves occurring.

Rogue waves have been a fear for sailors worried their ships would be lost to the ocean and to time, like the lost vessel in the Antarctic. Now there is better comprehension of ocean conditions and the role they play in wave formation. With these data, perhaps one day rogue waves can be accurately predicted and more thoroughly understood.