Apple's First Foldable iPhone Will Storm The Market Despite Its Higher Price Tag

Samsung is expected to launch the Galaxy Z Fold 8 next summer, the usual timeframe for Samsung foldable phone launches. A few weeks later, Apple should unveil its first-generation foldable iPhone, routinely referred to as the iPhone Fold, as the device will be a direct competitor to Samsung's Fold-type handsets. Despite the 7-year gap and a significantly higher price tag, the iPhone Fold may sell much better than its rivals, Samsung phones included.

IDC's latest projections show that the iPhone Fold will take over 22% of the foldable market next year. The analysts also say that Apple will grab 34% of the foldables market value, thanks to an average price point of $2,400. This year's Galaxy Z Fold 7 sells for $2,000, before any deals. A few days ago, Samsung unveiled the Galaxy Z TriFold, which should sell for around $3,000 in the U.S., though the price is not confirmed. IDC notes that the Galaxy Z TriFold would also help ignite interest in the foldable space next year, and that Huawei foldable shipments will almost double, but the iPhone Fold will be the real "game-changer."

The forecast says the foldable segment will grow by 30% next year, compared to 6% in the previous estimate. Comparatively, traditional phone shipments will drop by 1.4%. According to IDC data, the foldables market will continue to outpace non-foldables through 2029. Apple's share of the market is seen growing from 22% in 2026 to 30% in 2027 and 34% in 2029 at the expense of rivals.

The forecast IDC released for the next four years may seem like bad news for Samsung, the dominant player in the foldables segment. But IDC points out that the first foldable iPhone will be a "turning point" for the entire market. Apple is seen as a catalyst that will help the entire category. "Although foldables will continue to be a niche segment from a volume perspective, it will become a relevant value driver for most vendors offering foldables, as average selling prices will be 3 times higher than a standard smartphone," Francisco Jeronimo, vice president of client devices at IDC, said in a statement. IDC figures signal continued year-on-year growth for the segment, with foldables significantly outperforming traditional phones through 2029. Samsung should benefit indirectly, even though the iPhone Fold will eat into its market share.

That's not the only reason for Samsung to appreciate Apple's entry into the foldables category. A report from ETNews indicates that Samsung Display will manufacture over 11 million foldable OLED panels for the foldable iPhone in 2026, with the volume exceeding initial expectations by 30%. Samsung will be the only provider of foldable OLED panels. Samsung will also make 11 million units of OLED panels for the phone's external display.

The report notes the current foldable market size is just over 20 million units, a figure that aligns with IDC's 20.6 million sales estimate for 2025. Thus, ETNews seems to corroborate IDC's expectations that the foldable iPhone will take a significant chunk of the market. The report quotes estimates from Omdia that say next year's foldable OLED panel shipments will grow by 40.4% compared to 2025, to 33 million units.

If accurate, the ETNews figures indicate Samsung will profit directly from the iPhone Fold's arrival. The foldable display is the key component of a foldable device. It's more fragile and expensive than non-folding screens. Previous reports said that Apple's main priority for the iPhone Fold was to eliminate the creasing effect that appears at the top of the hinge on most foldable phones, Samsung's handsets included. For example, the Galaxy Z TriFold unveiled recently shows two creases, one for each hinge. Apple would pay a premium for display and hinge technology that would prevent creasing, or significantly reduce it, according to earlier reports.

The ETNews report suggests Apple may have succeeded in improving the crease by using a new hinge and materials. The book-style iPhone Fold will reportedly feature a 7.58-inch foldable screen and a 5.35-inch cover panel. The foldable iPhone should also introduce display technologies unseen in the iPhone, including Color Filter on Encapsulation (COE) and Under Display Camera (UDC). COE helps phone vendors reduce the thickness of the display by including the polarizer layer into the screen. It also improves brightness. As for UDC tech, previous iPhone Fold leaks said the foldable screen's selfie camera will sit behind the screen.